Forecasting and narratives under uncertainty

I was appointed director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) in 2016, shortly after prime minister David Cameron had called a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. The institute had been publishing a regular economic forecast since 1959, and I quickly learnt that our view would provide a focal point for much of the economic commentary in the run-up to the referendum and subsequent policy choices. What was also clear was that we now faced a huge