Survey Monday
Pot stocks… It’s been two years since the HHS recommended the rescheduling of marijuana in the U.S., while there has been some support for the industry from President Trump. After 4/20 rolled in this weekend, will the rescheduling of cannabis from a Schedule I drug happen by the end of 2025?
Take the survey here and don’t forget to share your thoughts in the WSB comments section.
Looking ahead
Guidance is always the most important factor of earnings season, and it’s even more significant this time around. The problem is there’s not going to be too much of it as corporate results kick into high gear. Big Tech and more than one hundred S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings this week, but clarity surrounding tariffs and the near-term business environment has reduced visibility and put estimates in limbo. See the full list
What does it mean? While suspended outlooks or the scaling back of guidance typically weigh on shares, this time around the trend is being felt across sectors. Investors are likely to be sympathetic to the uncertainty, with stocks already punished over the lack of economic transparency. Investors know that it is currently hard for the C-suite to project a forecast with any degree of confidence, but it could also spark some creative ways to satisfy questioning shareholders.
An example of that was seen last week when United Airlines (UAL) was among the first to report Q1 results. The carrier issued two sets of guidance – one catered to a “stable environment” and the other in the event of a “recession.” More companies may take a similar approach if they decide to issue any forward-looking numbers, along with likely revisions that could reflect the multiple scenarios currently facing many firms.
SA commentary: “Given earnings patterns over the years, and because Q1 ’25 was pre-Liberation Day, Q2 ’25 earnings are expected – from the results this past week – to be up 10-12% for the quarter,” writes Seeking Alpha Analyst Brian Gilmartin. “However, Q2 ’25 S&P 500 EPS estimates have already started getting cut, and that reduction will likely continue for another 11-12 weeks. How far Q2 ’25 S&P 500 EPS estimates get revised lower over the next 3-4 weeks will be critical.” Take the WSB survey.
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