Crypto & Web3

Bitcoin Four-Hour RSI Flips ‘Overbought’ in BTC Price Retracement Signal

02/10/2025
mhsj


Key points:

  • Bitcoin may have topped out at $119,500 as price indicators flip “overbought.”

  • Traders eye a support retest to consolidate its latest rebound, which is nearing 10% in a week.

  • ETF inflows total $1.6 billion in three days, with IBIT breaking into the top 20 ETFs by assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) is ready for a short-term pullback and support retest as price metrics flash “overbought.”

Traders warned Thursday that BTC/USD may retreat lower next after hitting six-week highs above $119,000.

RSI calls for BTC price to take a break

Bitcoin has gained almost 10% over the past week as bulls stage a comeback, echoing the upside in gold.

Amid a trip to over $119,500 on Bitstamp, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, market participants nonetheless see the rally cooling before continuation is possible. This is due to price indicators becoming overheated.

“Looking at this further, pullback/retest makes sense as shown by LTFs,” trader Roman wrote in an X post on the topic. 

“Everything is overbought but no signs of initial weakness. Simple breakout & retest.”

BTC/USD four-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Among the evidence supporting such a move is the relative strength index (RSI), now firmly in “overbought” territory at nearly 90/100. This marks the highest four-hour readings since July, when BTC/USD first traded above $123,000.

RSI is a classic leading indicator, and overbought values on lower timeframes can precede a market turnaround. 

On the daily and weekly charts, the situation has proven to be different, with RSI staying “overbought” throughout the final phases of previous bull markets.

“Volume, rsi, & macd look good for continuation to 124k over next few days,” Roman summarized.

BTC/USD one-day chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin ETFs underscore bullish momentum

Continuing on RSI, Caleb Franzen, creator of financial research resource Cubic Analytics, spied a bullish divergence playing out on Bitcoin versus the S&P 500 on Wednesday. 

Related: Bitcoin pushes for $118K as analysis calls US gov’t shutdown ‘non-event’

This came from analyzing the largest US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

Data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors confirmed net inflows across the US ETF cohort of more than $1.6 billion this week. IBIT contributed $600 million of the total.

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

At the same time, Eric Balchunas, a dedicated ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, confirmed its entry into the top 20 largest ETFs by assets.

“Someone asked me how long till Top 10. It is $50b away. If the last 12mo are repeated it may not take long. It took in $40b last 12mo and went up 85%,” he revealed on X. 

“That said, those other ETFs growing too so i don’t know. If forced i’d set the over/under for Xmas 2026.”

US ETF placement by assets. Source: Eric Balchunas/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.