Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, once one of Tesla’s most optimistic analysts, has slashed his delivery and earnings estimates for the EV maker, citing brand fatigue and market headwinds — though he still sees long-term upside.
One of Wall Street’s most prominent Tesla (TSLA) bulls is taking a more cautious stance as the electric vehicle giant faces mounting headwinds.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, long known for his bullish outlook on Tesla, has lowered his delivery forecasts for both Q1 and the full year. In a new investor note, Jonas cited increasing competition, Tesla’s aging vehicle lineup, and what he described as a “buyer’s strike” fueled by negative brand sentiment as key reasons for the downgrade.
As a result, Jonas cut his 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Tesla by 20%, signaling broader concerns about the automaker’s near-term profitability.
Despite the reduced estimates, Jonas still considers Tesla a top investment pick, projecting a potential upside of approximately 75% with a bullish price target of $410 per share.
However, he also issued a strong caveat: the road ahead is likely to be highly volatile.
“Given the upcoming catalysts and the nature of Tesla’s trading history, we see scope for the shares to test our $200 bear case and our $800 bull case within the next 12 months,” Jonas wrote. “We expect the key drivers of the stock will continue to include a wide scope of forces ranging from commercial, macro, geopolitical, technological, strategic and management specific.”
Jonas’s shift reflects broader uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s direction as it battles intensifying EV competition and struggles to maintain its innovative edge in a rapidly evolving market.