Bitcoin (BTC) Market Faces Renewed Sell Pressure Amid Fed Rate Speculations

Bitcoin has experienced a rollercoaster week, with its market recovering to $116,000 amid speculations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. However, the resurgence of sell pressure poses challenges to sustained growth, according to Glassnode’s latest analysis.

Spot Market Dynamics

In the spot market, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) surged into overbought territory, indicating strong momentum. Despite this, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) weakened, and trading volumes remained flat, suggesting limited conviction as sellers capitalized on the increased strength.

Futures Market Activity

The futures market witnessed heightened participation, with open interest climbing and perpetual CVD spiking due to aggressive buy-side flows. Nevertheless, softer funding rates highlighted a decline in long demand, pointing to a cautious shift in sentiment despite active leverage.

Options Market Trends

In the options market, open interest grew, but volatility spreads fell below range, and skew declined sharply. This reflects a reduction in hedging activities and a more complacent market tone. The decreased defensive posture among traders increases the risk of volatility surprises.

Institutional Interest and On-Chain Fundamentals

Institutional demand is evident, with significant inflows into US spot ETFs and steady trade volumes. The ETF Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio rose, indicating that holders remain profitable. On-chain fundamentals showed a mixed picture: while addresses neared cycle lows, transfer volume increased, suggesting renewed capital flows despite quieter user activity.

Glassnode’s data also highlighted improved profitability metrics, with supply in profit and realized profits and losses (P/L) rising. However, the elevated profit realization raises concerns about potential demand exhaustion.

Market Sentiment and Outlook

The broader market benefited from macro-driven momentum, supported by ETF inflows and futures accumulation. Nonetheless, weakening spot flows, softer funding, and increased profit-taking hint at emerging sell pressure. While sentiment appears to improve, the market remains fragile, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable if demand fails to sustain.

For further details, visit the full analysis on Glassnode.

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