Crypto & Web3

Bitcoin heads toward $100K, but BTF futures predict recovery

30/05/2025
mhsj


Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin price metrics show restrained profit-taking and strong support near $96,000–$104,000.

  • A $3.7 billion open interest drawdown reset an overheated market and preps BTC for a possible rebound.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down 4.50% for the week and could revisit the $100,000 level over the next few days, but data suggests that prolonged trading below this level could be limited.

In a recent post, CryptoQuant noted that the Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) chart, which tracks profits and losses from Bitcoin transactions, shows moderate profit taking at the current levels. This activity, while notable, is significantly lower than the spikes seen during the cycle peaks in March and November 2024.

Bitcoin: Net realized profit and loss (NRPL). Source: CryptoQuant

Each of these periods marked intense sell-offs that signaled market tops, but the recent profit-taking is relatively restrained, indicating the market is not overheated. This suggests Bitcoin’s upward trajectory is far from exhausted.

Another key metric that supports a swift bounce if Bitcoin drops below $100,000 is the short-term realized price at $96,000. The metric shows the average price at which recently transacted Bitcoin were acquired, acting as a critical support level.

Bitcoin short-term holder realized price. Source: Glassnode

If Bitcoin dips below $100,000, the $96,000 level could likely act as a floor, attracting buyers and limiting downside. Historically, Bitcoin has not lingered below the short-term realized price for long during bullish cycles, reflecting firm holder conviction and market demand.

Crypto trader Altcoin Sherpa suggested that the current market conditions are primed for a price recovery in the coming days. Highlighting a key support zone between $102,000 and $104,500, where BTC previously consolidated before breaking higher, the trader anticipates a bounce that could push Bitcoin above $107,000 within the next week.

Likewise, technical analyst Titan of Crypto noted that BTC is approaching a key technical support level. The trader said,

“BTC pulling back toward the daily Kijun ~$102,700. This area previously held and could act as a solid base for the next move.”

Bitcoin Ichimoku analysis by Titan of Crypto. Source: X

Related: Price predictions 5/30: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, SUI, HYPE, LINK

$3.7 billion Bitcoin open interest wipeout resets the market

Bitcoin’s futures open interest (OI) experienced a $3.7 billion wipeout as BTC price fell to $104,500 from $108,000. This can be considered a healthy market reset, as it reflects the liquidation of overleveraged positions, reducing market euphoria.

Bitcoin price, aggregated open interest, and liquidation. Source: Velo.data

High OI often indicates over-leveraged trading, which can amplify volatility. When a slight price drop triggers a significant number of liquidations, as illustrated above, it clears out speculative positions, stabilizing the market.

Related: How low can the Bitcoin price go?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.