Bloomberg Raises Solana ETF Approval Odds to 90% as Altcoin ETF Momentum Builds

Bloomberg Intelligence has significantly raised its forecast for the approval of a U.S.-listed Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF), assigning it a 90% chance of regulatory approval in 2025, up from 70% earlier this year. The revised projection, shared by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas on April 30 via X (formerly Twitter), reflects growing optimism around the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) evolving stance on crypto-based ETFs.

The analysis also includes more favorable odds for ETFs based on other major altcoins, including XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE). Bloomberg now gives XRP and DOGE ETFs a 65% and 75% chance, respectively, of receiving SEC approval this year—up from previous estimates issued in February.

Surge in Altcoin ETF Filings

As of the end of April, six asset managers, including Grayscale, VanEck, and 21Shares, have filed proposals with the SEC seeking approval to launch Solana-based ETFs. A similar number of applications are pending for XRP funds, while three DOGE ETF proposals are also under review.

In total, over 70 crypto ETF applications are currently awaiting SEC review, highlighting a surge of institutional interest in altcoin-linked investment vehicles amid shifting regulatory dynamics.

Bloomberg’s revised outlook coincides with the October 2025 deadline for the SEC to make decisions on several of these proposals.

Political and Market Signals Driving Momentum

The improved ETF outlook comes as President Donald Trump’s second administration continues to push for a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. Since taking office in January 2025, the Trump administration has encouraged the SEC to adopt a more constructive approach toward digital asset innovation.

Further boosting sentiment is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) decision in March to list futures contracts tied to Solana. Market analysts view this development as a critical step toward legitimizing SOL as a candidate for a spot ETF.

SEC Timelines and Procedural Outlook

Despite the increased optimism, analysts caution that the SEC may take its time. James Seyffart, also of Bloomberg Intelligence, noted that the SEC typically uses the full 240–260 day review period before issuing final decisions on ETF applications.

This suggests that while 2025 approvals are increasingly likely, final decisions—especially for more speculative assets like DOGE—could extend into 2026.

In a notable move in April, Nasdaq filed a request with the SEC to list a 21Shares Dogecoin ETF, further expanding the list of DOGE-related funds awaiting regulatory clearance.

Broader Implications for Crypto Markets

The rising probability of altcoin ETF approvals represents a major shift in the U.S. regulatory landscape and could mark a turning point for mainstream crypto adoption. Spot ETFs offer traditional investors exposure to crypto assets without the need to directly manage digital wallets or navigate blockchain infrastructure.

If approved, Solana, XRP, and DOGE ETFs could follow in the footsteps of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which have already established a foothold in U.S. markets, offering investors regulated access to leading crypto assets.

Conclusion

Bloomberg Intelligence’s upgraded ETF approval forecasts reflect growing institutional momentum and a more favorable regulatory climate for digital assets in the United States. With dozens of altcoin ETFs in the pipeline and key decisions looming, 2025 could prove to be a watershed year for the expansion of crypto into traditional financial markets.

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