Crypto & Web3

BTC Eyes Upside As US Jobs Revision Shakes Markets

09/09/2025
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Key takeaways:

  • The US Labor Department revised payrolls down by 911,000 jobs, the largest cut in history, signaling deep labor market weakness.

  • The revision strengthens expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut even though inflation is still elevated.

  • Bitcoin may mirror gold’s rally and regain momentum toward new highs in Q4.

Bitcoin (BTC) could be set to benefit price-wise in the coming weeks as the US Labor Department delivered the largest payroll revision in history, wiping 911,000 jobs from previously reported data for the 12 months ending March 2025. That’s an average of 76,000 jobs overstated per month, officially larger than the 2009 revision at the peak of the global financial crisis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Kobeissi newsletter/X

According to the Kobeissi newsletter, losses were concentrated in consumer-driven categories, including ?176,000 jobs in Leisure and Hospitality and ?226,000 in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities. Total private hiring was overstated by 880,000 jobs, a scale of weakness not seen outside the Great Depression and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

The revisions add to a concerning trend. Last month, the US cut 258,000 jobs from the May and June reports. Yesterday’s revision tacked on another 27,000, marking the largest two-month net revision in modern history outside of 2020. Alongside August’s weak 22,000-job gain, the data all but lock in a Federal Reserve rate cut at next week’s meeting.

US revised jobs exceeding 2009 levels. Source: Kobeissi newsletter/X

Gold has already priced it in; Bitcoin may be next

Gold, the traditional store of value, has surged 40% this year, with gold miners nearly doubling returns, nearly 10 times that of the S&P 500. Investors have long bet that a weakening labor market would force the Fed to act, despite the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) back above 3% and growth near 3%.

For Bitcoin, the implications may be even more powerful. Bitwise Strategist André Dragosch captured it succinctly in an X post, stating, 

“The Fed hasn’t even cut rates yet—and people are still fading the #bitcoin vs. money supply chart. Major USD stablecoins are already flashing the same signal: macro liquidity is expanding. Bullish for #Bitcoin.”

Related: Nasdaq seeks access to Gemini’s crypto services via investment: Report

Bitcoin thrives in liquidity expansions

With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in eight days, it will mark the first cut in history with inflation still hot, stocks at record highs and GDP strong. That combination signals one thing: The central bank is prioritizing labor weakness over inflation, creating a “dovish but cautious” tone.

The advantage remains clear for Bitcoin. Just as gold rallied months ahead of policy confirmation, Bitcoin’s lean positioning and historical sensitivity to liquidity cycles could transform this rare policy mix into a powerful upside catalyst, potentially reviving momentum toward new highs in Q4. 

Analytics platform Tephra Digital earlier forecast that, 

“If Bitcoin’s lagged M2 and gold correlations hold, the rest of the year could be very interesting. Charts below point to $167k–185k.”

Bitcoin gold M2 performance data. Source: X

Related: Lessons learned from a graduate-level Bitcoin class

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.