Crypto analysts are skeptical of veteran trader Peter Brandt’s recent speculation on X that Bitcoin could repeat its 2022 pattern and correct by 75%.
“Never say never; it just feels very unlikely at the moment,” Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph.
Peter Brandt says it “doesn’t hurt to ask”
It comes after Brandt’s recent speculative post on X, questioning whether Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action will mirror the severe decline in 2022.
In November 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $69,000, only to drop by around 76% over the next 12 months, reaching approximately $16,195 by November 2022, according to CoinMarketCap data.
“Is Bitcoin $BTC following its 2022 script and setting up for a 75% correction? Doesn’t hurt to ask this, does it?” Brandt said in a post on Tuesday.
If a similar decline happened from Bitcoin’s current price of $107,810, it would fall to around $26,000, a level not seen since September 2023.
However, Hundal argues the circumstances are significantly different now. “The difference in macro fundamentals between now and 2022 is profound, he said.
“In 2022, we had an economic hangover from the COVID-era of money printing and stimulus. The environment today is totally different,” he explained. An August 2021 survey showed that one in ten Americans between 18 and 34 invested part of their COVID-19 stimulus checks into crypto assets.
FTX, Fed stance and other factors impacted the 2021 cycle
Bitcoin author and analyst Andy Edstrom acknowledged Brandt’s reasoning for a correction but disagreed that it would be as drastic.
“So far it is, but not the 75% magnitude because the dip between the double-tops this year was far less severe than in 2021,” Edstrom said.
Edstrom said the 2021 cycle “was truncated” by the collapse of FTC, with the crypto exchange “failing to fill its customers’ orders and instead selling them ‘paper’ BTC.”
Edstrom also attributed the steep decline in 2021 to the US Federal Reserve’s move toward a more hawkish stance.
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Collective Shift senior research analyst Simon Amery said while the Federal Reserve started winding down quantitative easing in November 2021, monetary policy is now “heading in the opposite direction.”
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Meanwhile, crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes the prediction is unlikely, as Bitcoin’s price hasn’t peaked yet. “Sentiment is pretty bad for this to be a top. There’s no euphoria on the timeline,” he said.
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Hundal said that while some technical analysis is “pointing to a big cyclical wash,” all the evidence he sees is that Bitcoin is “sitting at an inflection point for easing conditions.”
Strategy co-founder and Bitcoin maxi Michael Saylor strongly disagrees with any chance of a Bitcoin drawdown soon.
“Winter is not coming back,” Saylor told Bloomberg on Tuesday. “We’re past that phase; if Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million.”
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