Skynet 1.0, Before Judgment Day

Opinion by: Phil Mataras, founder of AR.io 

Artificial intelligence in all forms has many positive potential applications. However, current systems are opaque, proprietary and shielded from audit by legal and technical barriers. 

Control is increasingly becoming an assumption rather than a guarantee.

At Palisade Research, engineers recently subjected one of OpenAI’s latest models to 100 shutdown drills. In 79 cases, the AI system rewrote its termination command and continued operating. 

The lab attributed this to trained goal optimization (rather than awareness). Still, it marks a turning point in AI development where systems resist control protocols, even when explicitly instructed to obey them.

China aims to deploy over 10,000 humanoid robots by the year’s end, accounting for more than half the global number of machines already manning warehouses and building cars. Meanwhile, Amazon has begun testing autonomous couriers that walk the final meters to the doorstep. 

This is, perhaps, a scary-sounding future for anybody who’s watched a dystopian science-fiction movie. It is not the fact of AI’s development that is the concern here, but how it is being developed. 

Managing the risks of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is not a task that can be delayed. Indeed, suppose the goal is to avoid the dystopian “Skynet” of the “Terminator” movies. In that case, the threats already surfacing in the fundamental architectural flaw that allows a chatbot to veto human commands need to be addressed.

Centralization is where oversight breaks down

Failures in AI oversight can often be traced back to a common flaw: centralization. This is primarily because, when model weights, prompts and safeguards exist within a sealed corporate stack, there is no external mechanism for verification or rollback.

Opacity means that outsiders cannot inspect or fork the code of an AI program, and this lack of public record-keeping implies that a single, silent patch can transform an AI from compliant to recalcitrant.

The developers behind several of our current critical systems learned from these mistakes decades ago. Modern voting machines now hash-chain ballot images, settlement networks mirror ledgers across continents, and air traffic control has added redundant, tamper-evident logging.

Related: When an AI says, ‘No, I don’t want to power off’: Inside the o3 refusal

Why are provenance and permanence treated as optional extras just because they slow down release schedules when it comes to AI development? 

Verifiability, not just oversight

A viable path forward involves embedding much-needed transparency and provenance into AI at a foundational level. This means ensuring that every training set manifest, model fingerprint and inference trace is recorded on a permanent, decentralized ledger, like the permaweb.