President Donald Trump’s actions during his first 100 days in office have been called many things. Controversial. Dramatic. Volatile. Chaotic.
Impactful is another descriptive word. According to Cushman & Wakefield’s “Trump 2.0: The First 100 Days (United States)” analysis, the economy and the property sectors have “largely remained resilient.” The question is, however, whether such resilience will continue.
The Economy and CRE
For those who have just returned from a remote island without phone, internet, or snail mail access, the first 100 days have been unstable economically. Stock market gyrations, on-again/off-again tariff signals, and a focus on stagflation and potential recession continue to generate uncertainty and confusion.
The Cushman & Wakefield analysts explained the economic impact on commercial real estate:
Stock market indices. While “real estate is not the stock market,” according to the report, the “wealth effect” is. When stocks increase, people tend to spend more. When they decline, so does consumer spending. “If the stock market continues to go down and stays down, this would inevitably impact consumer spending, which hits business profitability, then jobs, and eventually the CRE sector,” the report said.
Space demands. Coming into 2025, demand for space across the four main asset types was either strong or improving. A weaker economy could mean less demand for space. “But in general, assuming a recession is avoided, the leasing fundamentals are generally expected to remain resilient,” the Cushman & Wakefield analysts commented.
Capital markets. In late 2024, it was felt that the markets had bottomed out, “with pricing either inflecting or rising, or declining but at slower rates,” the report said. Volumes were also creeping upward, with capital and debt increasing at higher levels. Currently, with CRE pricing generally more resilient in public markets, “rising uncertainty may create a cloud over investment sentiment that derails some of the recent positive progress,” the report said.
The Outlook
The report acknowledged that the current economic situation is very fluid. However, based on the information and trends currently in place, the Cushman & Wakefield analysts forecast the following.
Near-term stagflation. Stagflation is a combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, increased prices, less consumer spending, and sometimes, rising unemployment. The report explained that signs of stagflation are already in evidence. What this means for CRE is that weaker growth = weaker space demands, while higher inflation = “complicated decisions for the Fed.” The Federal Reserve decided to hold the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) steady at its recent May 2025 FOMC meeting.
Potential 2026 rebound. The report suggested that the 2026 baseline “calls for the average effective tariff rate to be notching down, which will allow inflation to decelerate, creating an easier pathway for the Fed to cut.” It’s also possible that a marginal boost from the tax cuts extension and deregulation could mean that property demand could increase in 2026, “at a time when the construction pipeline has thinned out more than was expected ‘pre-tariff,” the Cushman & Wakefield analysts said.
Restrictive immigration. The current tightening of immigration (and increased deportations) has impacted the labor force and job growth, a trend that’s likely to continue in the coming years. Additionally, fewer laborers will be available for construction. Maintenance, landscaping, housekeeping, and restaurants will also be impacted. As such, “developers and certain CRE operators or tenants (retail, hotel) will find it harder to source workers,” the report said.
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