This Stock Has More Than 10X in the Past Year. Can the Run Continue?

Key Points

• Oklo shares have surged more than 10x over the last 12 months as enthusiasm for nuclear power and AI-driven energy demand has spiked.

• The company is pre-revenue but is building a long pipeline of potential customers and moving its first projects through licensing.

• At today’s price, the stock is arguably priced for perfection.

• 10 stocks we like better than Oklo ›

Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) has been one of the market’s most eye-catching stories this year. The advanced nuclear developer, best known for its compact powerhouse reactors aimed at data centers, industrial sites, and government facilities, has seen its stock rocket in 2025 as investors search for scalable, always-on power for artificial intelligence (AI) computing. Over the trailing 12 months, shares are up roughly 1,400% (more than 10x) as of this writing.

This excitement rests on two pillars: a fast-growing commercial pipeline and visible progress on licensing and government work. The central question for investors is whether today’s valuation already bakes in years of flawless execution. The short answer: The business may have a long runway, but the stock leaves little room for setbacks.

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Image source: Getty Images.

Big potential

Oklo is still pre-revenue, but it has posted tangible milestones over the last year. On June 11, for example, the company was issued a Notice of Intent to Award by the Defense Logistics Agency to provide power to Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska — a step toward a long-term agreement under which Oklo would design, build, own, and operate a microreactor that delivers both electricity and heat. The Air Force described this as a major milestone for its microreactor pilot.

Commercial interest has expanded, too. Oklo’s March company update outlined a master power agreement with Switch totaling up to 12 gigawatts of potential deployments over time, a $25 million customer pre-payment tied to a 500-megawatt letter of intent from Equinix (NASDAQ: EQIX), and additional letters of intent including 50 megawatts with Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG). Management also disclosed that its customer pipeline has grown to roughly 14 gigawatts, with its modular 50- to 75-megawatt platform targeted at power-hungry data centers.

On the regulatory front, Oklo says it is pursuing a combined license path (rather than a separate design certification) to streamline timing, and it has advanced several pre-application filings with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The March update also highlighted a move to scale its standard plant from 50 to 75 megawatts to better fit data-center architectures while keeping the same core technology.

Financially, the company strengthened its balance sheet with a follow-on equity raise during its second quarter, ending the period with about $683 million in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities. For the second quarter, Oklo reported operating expenses of $28.0 million and a net loss of $24.7 million. In the quarterly filing, management said it expects total net cash used in operating activities for 2025 to be between $65 million and $80 million.

But what about valuation?

Despite the company’s exciting potential, investors should view Oklo skeptically, especially given the huge market value it already commands. Oklo does not yet generate revenue, and its flagship projects still need to clear licensing and financing milestones before construction and operations begin. Even so, the stock’s trailing-12-month return of roughly 1,400% — and today’s market capitalization of about $14 billion as of this writing — suggest a lot of future success is already reflected in the price. If timelines slip or contracts evolve from letters of intent into smaller initial phases, the stock could take a hit.

There are also execution and policy risks. The Air Force selection is an important step, but it is not a final contract. Oklo still needs to complete the NRC process; note that a prior application was rejected in 2022 for insufficient information, and while the company has reengaged and laid out a clearer path, regulatory review remains a key variable. On the flip side, federal momentum — including fee reductions and faster timelines proposed for advanced reactors — could be an incremental tailwind if finalized.

None of this diminishes what the company has achieved. Oklo is building a compelling go-to-market model: sell power under long-term agreements, not reactors; scale with modular units to match customer growth; and pursue domestic fuel solutions. These ideas align well with AI-driven demand and with customers who value reliability. But given today’s price, investors are paying up well ahead of revenue.

Stepping back, the business may prove out over time — especially if Eielson moves to a definitive agreement, the NRC process stays on track, and one or two commercial deployments break ground. Those would be important validation points. Until then, the stock’s massive run and pre-revenue status make the risk-reward look stretched. Watching from the sidelines (while tracking licensing progress, firm contracts, and construction starts) is probably the wise move for now.

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Daniel Sparks and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Equinix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.