Why betting on XRP’s 2017 bull run could be extremely risky in 2025

Key takeaways:

• Unlike 2017, long-term XRP holders have already shifted from euphoria into doubt.

• The XRP/BTC pair remains 90% below its 2017 peak and is stuck in a distribution zone.

Several XRP (XRP) analysts are referencing old bullish charts to predict new price booms, with multiple commentators, including CRYPTOWZRD and JD, arguing that XRP’s current price structure mirrors its 2017 bull run.

Back then, XRP spent months consolidating inside a giant symmetrical triangle before breaking out, briefly retesting support, and then accelerating by over 11,900% in under a year.

Chartists say today’s consolidation phase is showing the same pattern, anticipating XRP to reach a cycle target of $20.

Conditions in 2025 are vastly different, however, making a repeat of 2017’s gains far from guaranteed.

Long-term XRP holders doubt higher prices

One way to test whether XRP’s 2025 rally really mirrors 2017 is by looking at the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders.

In 2017, when XRP broke out of its giant triangle and began its monster rally, the long-term holder NUPL went straight into the Euphoria–Greed zone (blue).

That means holders were sitting on big profits and were still confident enough to ride the rally higher.

Importantly, sentiment never slipped back into the “Belief–Denial” stage (green) until well after the top, showing strong conviction during the parabolic rise.

In 2025, the situation looks different. Even though XRP has rallied strongly, the NUPL data shows long-term holders have already moved from Euphoria–Greed down into Belief–Denial.

This phase suggests investors are questioning whether the rally can last, a sign of hesitation rather than conviction.

Instead, their mood looks more like it did in 2021, when excitement gave way to doubt just before the market cooled.

XRP price remains weak versus Bitcoin

In 2017, XRP’s surge in the US dollar terms also accompanied sharp gains against Bitcoin (BTC).

Back then, the XRP/BTC pair climbed by more than 3,700% to over 0.00023 BTC within a year. That move reflected XRP’s position at the time as one of the few large-cap altcoins offering a payments-focused narrative.

In 2025, the structure is different.

XRP/BTC has rebounded to around 0.000025 BTC in September from mid-2024 lows near 0.000010 BTC. Still, the pair remains about 90% below its 2017 peak.

It is further testing a long-term distribution zone at 0.000025–0.000030 BTC, where rallies stalled multiple times between 2019 and 2022.

The 2017 ICO-driven surge also had fewer competitors, with XRP being one of the oldest cryptocurrencies. Today, it contends with rivals like Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Sui (SUI), alongside growing stablecoins in the cross-border settlement space.

Related: Altseason won’t start until more crypto ETFs launch: Bitfinex

In other words, it will be much harder for XRP bulls to achieve five-digit percentage gains this time as they did in 2017.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.