Key takeaways:
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In the past month, XRP whales have offloaded 640 million tokens, or $1.91 billion.
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Bearish divergence on the chart hints at weakening momentum.
XRP (XRP) onchain data reveals its largest holders have been quietly offloading their tokens for almost a month, with analysts pointing to risks of a 30% crash in the coming days.
Whale wallets drop by 640 million XRP
Since July 9, XRP whales have offloaded about 640 million tokens, according to onchain data resource CryptoQuant.
At current prices, the total value of these outflows exceeds $1.91 billion. Most of the distribution occurred while XRP traded between $2.28 and $3.54.
It is the second time in the last year that whales have been distributing during price rallies.
Related: $3 price at risk? Why XRP was one of the worst performers this week
Between November and January, they aggressively reduced exposure even as XRP surged from $1.65 to $3.27, implying that retail demand likely absorbed much of the sell pressure.
Not all outflows necessarily translate into actual selling, however. Some of the XRP whale activity could reflect internal reshuffling.
Nevertheless, there does appear to be an inverse pattern. For example, the recovering whale flows between January and April aligned with XRP’s correction from $3.27 to as low as $1.87, hinting that big investors accumulate during market weakness.
As of Thursday, the whale flow showed signs of a modest recovery.
The Enigma Trader, a CryptoQuant-associated analyst, said that XRP’s market may remain structurally weak unless whale addresses add 5 million XRP or more in the coming days, adding
“At present, there is no sign of consistent accumulation from large holders, a key component for a constructive trend reversal.”
XRP must hold above $2.65 or risk 30% crash
XRP must hold above the $2.65-support area, or it may risk crashing toward $2, as seen in a growing bearish divergence between rising prices and falling momentum on the weekly charts.
XRP price has printed higher highs in recent weeks, while its relative strength index (RSI) has made lower highs since January.
The divergence reflects weakening upside momentum, even as price pushes higher, similar to what happened during the April 2021 market top.
Volume has also faded through the recent push, reinforcing the momentum exhaustion signal.
XRP’s ongoing correction could push the price toward the 20-week EMA near $2.55, aligning with $2.65 support.
A break below this range raises the risk of a deeper drop to the 50-week EMA at $2.06, a key mean-reversion level after overheated rallies.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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