Early CSU Hurricane Season Forecast Calls for ‘Above-Average’ Activity

The team of hurricane researchers at Colorado State University has predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.

CSU’s initial forecast of the hurricane season issued April 3 calls for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes – with four major hurricanes of at least Category 3 (111 mph or more) strength. The average hurricane season typically has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The team, in its 42nd year of issuing hurricane forecasts, sites above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean as the primary factor in the early prediction for the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

“A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water,” the team said. A warm Atlantic also leads to lower pressure in the atmosphere, creating instability that favors hurricane formation. Plus, there is an absence of conditions that typically produce wind shear, which can break up hurricanes.

Last year’s record-breaking season included 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

Related: After Tens of Billions in Insured Losses, Record-Breaking Hurricane Season Ends

Five hurricanes (Debby, Beryl, Francine, Helene, and Milton) made U.S. landfall in 2024, and two (Helene and Milton) were major hurricanes.

Hurricane Beryl in late June was the earliest Atlantic basin Category 5 hurricane on record.

The team’s models put a 51% probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. in 2025. The average probability is 43%. The probabilities for a Gulf Coast or East Coast landfall in 2025 are 33% and 26%, respectively.

Updates to CSU’s forecast will be issued on June 11, July 9, and Aug. 6.

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