Forecast Calls for Wildfires to Burn More Land Across US This Year

A Long-range forecast predicts wildfires will burn more land across the U.S. this year, with a potentially active spring in places and a build up into summer.

An AccuWeather forecast out on Wednesday calls for 7 to 9 million acres to burn across the nation this year, above the historical average and within range of the 9 million acres burned in fires across the U.S. last year. The National Centers for Environmental Information puts the historical average at 7.5 million acres.

The forecast calls for higher activity in some parts of the U.S. in spring, and a slower start in other places, with summer possibly seeing a surge in wildfire activity. Forecasters say more than 30 states across the U.S. will face a “moderate,” “high,” or “very high” risk of fires in the fall.

The southern Plains and part of the interior Southwest region faces “very high” to “extreme” wildfire risks in spring dude to worsening drought conditions. Dry, windy and low-humidity days are expected to be frequent across the region, drying fuels and increasing the number of high-risk wildfire days. Dry thunderstorms, which can spark fires with lightning, are also possible, AccuWeather forecasters say.

Abnormally dry conditions and warm weather could also boost the fire danger across along the Eastern Seaboard through the rest of this spring. The fire risk the East Coast extends as far south as parts of southern Florida the rest of spring, according to the forecast.

Roughly half of the U.S. is in abnormally dry or drought conditions, while roughly 9% of the country in an extreme or exceptional drought.

Water temperatures off the West Coast have been cooler than the historical average, contributing to an increase in storms in the Northwest and high pressure building over Florida and the Southeast. The weakening of La Niña also prevented more rainfall from reaching Florida recently, drying out vegetation out across Florida, forecasters say.

The Midwest and northern Plains face a moderate risk of wildfires, however rain in late April and May may reduce the fire potential for late spring. The threat could elevate once again this summer, according to forecasters.

Storms and lingering winter moisture will limit wildfire activity across the West Coast and into the northern Rockies, while factors like springtime snowmelt in the mountains and vegetation growth could play a role in the fire season across the regions later in the year.

Shifting weather conditions from spring to summer will prime the environment for a surge in wildfire activity, especially across much of the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest and South Central states, according to the forecast.

The rest of the year’s wildfire forecast calls for:

• Fast-building fire conditions expected to focus on areas east of the Cascades through the northern Rockies. Lightning from dry thunderstorms could trigger fires in these areas, and the risk rises throughout the season as vegetation dries out amid summertime heat and sunshine.
• Thunderstorms will be a double-edged sword across California, Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico as the annual monsoon builds. Rain from the monsoon will help to lower the fire risk over time, but early in the season when the landscape is dry, lightning storms can ignite fires.
• Fires are possible throughout California this summer, but most of the activity is expected later in the year.
• More than 30 states will face a “moderate,” “high,” or “very high” risk of fires this fall.
• The “very high” risk of fires in the fall is concentrated across parts of Central and Northern California, much of southern, central and eastern Oregon, as well as western Idaho.

Top photo: A firefighter battles the Palisades Fire as it burns a structure in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Jan. 7. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope,File)

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